Moore’s Law Will No Longer Be Applicable On Technology After 2021 According To Reports
Moore’s Law, one of the most fundamental observations that has been driving computer technology might soon be no more. According to the law, the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles around every two years and that has pretty much been the case in the past, ever since its creation in the 1965 research paper. However, it might change and get the law revoked by 2021 as copper on silicon technology is reaching its practical limits.
A latest roadmap from Semiconductor Industry Association indicates a change in as early as 2021. The SIA said that even if it is physically possible for chip makers to cram in a few more transistors, it will probably not be financially practical because of the huge costs of manufacture making the law no longer applicable.
“Each new technology generation produces faster transistors that can switch faster than those produced with the previous technology generation. In the past, this electrical feature of transistors enabled microprocessors to operate at higher frequencies and, therefore, computer performance as measured by industry benchmarks,” said the report by SIA.
Since 2000, the transistor count has kept on increasing as Moore’s Law suggested and transistors are able to operate at higher and higher frequencies but due to physical limitation on the dissipation of heat generated by these high frequency transistors, it is practically impossible to keep up with the observation made by the law.
In order to ensure that integrated circuits operate under practical thermal conditions, one of the two features, number of transistors or frequency had to be leveled off. Frequency was chosen as the victim and due to that, the speeds of processors have stalled in the few gigahertz since the middle of the previous decade and is unable to move forward.
The rise of mobile has placed the emphasis squarely on reducing power consumption, and chip makers have increasingly struggled to shrink their integrated circuits – from 28nm to 14nm and, soon, to 10nm. The SIA anticipates memory, and flash memory in particular, to lead the way for microprocessor technology in the future.