Prediction Model For Oscars 2015 Proven Accurate
None else than the Academy Awards can recognize the cinematic achievements in the film industry. But the nomination procedure of the most prestigious award in the film world has many times been disputable. 2015 isn’t any exception.
According to Inside Microsoft Research, most of the objections being made rose after the lack of nominations for “Selma,” and on the absence of “The Lego Movie,” in nominees list of Oscars 2015, which was highly expected to receive an Animated Feature Film nomination.
However, the un-nominated have still influencing power. That is, to say, they will still be affecting the distribution of votes for the nominees. According to a Microsoft researcher David Rothschild “Absence in the [disputed] category makes a difference in the distribution of votes for the remaining choices.”
The controversy over “Selma” is affecting this year’s prediction model too. This was observed by Rothschild, who is an economist with Microsoft’s New York City research lab and a specialist in making predictions. Last year, he correctly predicted 21 out of 24 Academy Award winners. “As this controversy ebbed and flowed over the last few weeks, we had to make sure to take into account how it may affect the final votes,” Rotschild observes.
On a different note now, how a prediction model, like that of Rotschild, can so accurately predict the winners? And how do the models deal with voters’ shifting sentiments? Rotschild revealed his way: “Whenever I create predictions I focus on several attributes beyond accuracy, including flexibility, scalability, and timeliness.”
By timeliness the predictor meant that it is important to update the prediction with the latest information which is problematic. “One way to take this into account is to follow the public opinion on the topic and assume that public opinion will translate into pressure on the voters,” he further notes.
Coming back to “Selma,” according to the researcher it is not an easy task to match public opinion to a specific category and that “there are not even many alternatives to express dissatisfaction in the nomination process in that there is no clear movie for people to support in lieu of Selma’s lack of nominations,” which complicates this year’s prediction model.
However, the prediction markets then help in forecasting the winners. “Prediction markets follow a select group of people who have high levels of information on what voters will do and are willing to wager real-money on the outcomes,” he says. “And, prediction market-based forecasts have been incredibly accurate.”
P.S: Rotschild’s techniques and his understanding of the functions of prediction markets have been successful once more. His predictions were spot on. Following is his prediction model which has become a winner’s list too:
Best Film: Birdman
Best Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman)
Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)